“Tinubu’s Misadventure”The thick cloud gathering over Nigeria’s political horizon has undoubtedly sent shivers down the spines of President Tinubu’s political loyalists and apologists.

During his inauguration speech at Eagle Square, Abuja, the President summoned the “courage” to inform Nigerians that they were about to embark on a long journey of economic turbulence and social dislocation. He announced the immediate removal of the petroleum subsidy—a move he acknowledged would be painful in the short term, but necessary for long-term economic recovery. He likened it to a surgical operation needed to remove a long-standing tumour afflicting the Nigerian economy.

In addition, President Tinubu removed the safety net on the Naira, allowing it to float freely against the US Dollar and other major world currencies.

These policies have had devastating and, in some cases, irreversible consequences on the lives of ordinary Nigerians. The removal of the subsidy and the floating of the Naira have triggered an uncontrolled spike in the prices of goods and services, determined solely by market forces. As a result, millions of Nigerians have been pushed below the poverty line.

The productive capacity of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has plummeted to historic lows. It now resembles a ghost of its former self. A visit to the industrial layouts of Kano and Kaduna will convince even the most indifferent observer that the country’s industrialisation drive has been turned upside down and is gasping for air under Tinubu’s leadership.

The financial sector has also taken a major hit. Interest rates have skyrocketed to over 35%, discouraging borrowing and stalling business growth. The sharp decline in access to funds has further widened financing gaps, deepening economic stagnation.

This economic downturn has translated into widespread hardship and worsening inflation, evolving into stagflation across all sectors. The administration’s misplaced priorities are best illustrated by the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway project, launched at an exorbitant cost. The timing and urgency of this project raise serious questions about its necessity in the current economic climate.

Security remains a major concern. Despite high expectations at the outset of Tinubu’s administration, the government has failed to significantly improve safety and security across the country. Many communities have been left in despair, with their hopes sidelined by the government’s inaction.

One of the biggest failures of the Tinubu administration is the worsening power supply situation. During his campaign, the President made a solemn promise that if his government failed to provide steady and uninterrupted power, he should not be re-elected. What Nigerians have today, however, is a prolonged national blackout. The situation became particularly embarrassing when the seat of government, Aso Rock, reportedly switched to an independent power source, despite a whopping ₦2 billion spent on installing solar power infrastructure for the presidency.

Tinubu’s misadventure has provided a fertile ground for opposition parties to regroup and unite under the ADC, much like the coalition that unseated the PDP in 2015. It is increasingly unlikely that the Tinubu administration will withstand the “encirclement strategy” being employed by these coalition parties ahead of the 2027 elections.

With the current high cost of living, decaying infrastructure, rising unemployment, and widespread joblessness, the upcoming electoral battle between the APC and the ADC coalition promises to be fierce. Tinubu’s failures will undoubtedly become a central campaign issue for the opposition, potentially giving them the upper hand at the polls.

It is crucial to remind Nigerian politicians of the importance of self-reliance and the need to produce goods and services locally. This is the only path to meaningful development and global relevance.

Nigeria must reclaim its position as West Africa’s manufacturing hub. The government must urgently create an enabling environment for investors to return, revive, and rejuvenate the country’s moribund industrial sector. Failure to do so will only continue the vicious cycle of borrowing and dependency.

The Trump administration’s tariff policy in the U.S. was aimed at bringing back manufacturing to American soil, creating jobs, and generating wealth. Similarly, President George W. Bush launched bailout programmes to rescue companies like Chrysler and General Motors from collapse.

Nigeria can and should adopt similar measures. Tinubu’s administration should establish an Industrial Resuscitation Fund to support struggling manufacturing companies. During the tenure of His Highness, the Emir of Kano, Muhammad Sanusi II, he implemented a refinancing and restructuring policy that helped stabilise Nigeria’s banking sector, burdened with high levels of non-performing loans.

Tinubu must now consider rolling back or adjusting some of his earlier policies—particularly those related to fuel subsidy removal and Naira devaluation—to cushion their adverse effects.

Unless the APC takes urgent corrective action, it will find it extremely difficult to overcome the hurdles of the 2027 elections, especially if the opposition presents a united front. The administration must pay close attention to the plight of Nigerians and take steps to alleviate their suffering.

Today, Nigerians are going through one of the most challenging periods in recent history. The Tinubu administration must take a long, honest look in the mirror and confront the bitter truth if it is to survive.

When the political storm begins to rage, the APC may be swept away by strong winds and a powerful flood of public dissatisfaction.

Only time will tell whether Tinubunomics can withstand the hurricane that is rapidly approaching, with strong winds and powerful storms threatening to shake the very foundation of his government.

By Mahmud Shuaibu Ringim (mahmudshuaibu44@gmail.com)