The successful merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in the lead-up to the 2015 general elections might not have yielded victory without the decisive influence of a breakaway faction from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This internal division within the PDP effectively disrupted its long-standing political dominance and played a key role in its eventual electoral loss.
Since the return to democratic governance in 1999, the PDP had maintained a strong grip on power, governing for the better part of the Fourth Republic. The party’s political machinery was well-oiled and formidable, allowing it to withstand the usual turbulence that accompanies general elections. Prior to 2015, no single opposition party was strong enough to dislodge the PDP, which enjoyed nationwide structure and reach. The opposition remained fragmented—lacking both a shared ideology and a unified strategy. Their only common ground was a desire to seize power, with little clarity on what to do with it once attained.
During the 2015 merger, the CPC produced the presidential candidate due to the widespread popularity and grassroots appeal of Muhammadu Buhari, despite CPC’s relatively narrow political base—having won only one state, Nasarawa, and lacking control in the national legislature. Nonetheless, Buhari’s candidacy galvanized the opposition, and under the banner of the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), the presidency was secured. The APC repeated its success in 2019 and extended its hold with the election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, originally from the ACN bloc of the coalition, in 2023.
As the 2027 election season draws near, the APC is actively strategizing for President Tinubu’s re-election. However, the party faces significant challenges, especially with the current economic hardships caused by the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, which has led to a steep decline in its value against the U.S. dollar. These issues have contributed to growing public discontent and declining approval ratings for the APC.
Amid this backdrop, recent images circulating on social media showing President Tinubu wearing a red cap—commonly associated with Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso—have fueled speculation about a possible alliance. This visual gesture may be a subtle confirmation of rumours that Kwankwaso might return to the APC and potentially be selected as Tinubu’s running mate, replacing Vice President Kashim Shettima.
If this political realignment materializes, it could significantly boost APC’s chances in 2027. Kwankwaso commands a massive following, particularly in Kano State, Nigeria’s most populous voting bloc. His political movement, the Kwankwasiyya, has demonstrated formidable strength, especially in the last general election where he, as the NNPP presidential candidate, garnered over one million votes and led his party to win the majority of elective positions in Kano without holding any public office at the time.
Bringing Kwankwaso back into the APC fold would not only reflect President Tinubu’s strategic political acumen similar to his role in the party’s formation—but also broaden the party’s national appeal. Kwankwaso remains a prominent northern political figure whose influence is deeply rooted in the aspirations of the Northern electorate. Efforts to diminish his popularity have repeatedly failed, and his credibility remains intact.
Choosing Kwankwaso as a running mate would be a masterstroke for several reasons:
1. Electoral Strength: He has a proven ability to secure votes in the North, especially from the youth and grassroots movements.
2. Political Experience: As a seasoned politician, he deeply understands the challenges and aspirations of the Northern populace.
3. Executive Leadership: He served two successful terms as Governor of Kano, Nigeria’s most populous and economically vibrant state after Lagos.
4. National Security Insight: His tenure as Minister of Defence provided him with firsthand experience of the country’s security dynamics.
5. National and International Exposure: Kwankwaso has an in-depth grasp of Nigeria’s socio-political landscape and has represented the country in various international roles, including as a special envoy to Darfur.
6. Charisma and Integrity: He is widely respected for his personal discipline, vision, and political courage.
The 2027 general election presents an opportunity for the APC to rejuvenate its political base and consolidate power. Aligning with a proven political heavyweight like Kwankwaso could be the game-changer needed to secure victory with minimal friction. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would be well advised to look no further than Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso—a reliable team player with the capacity to drive the party’s electoral success.
Mahmud Shuaibu Ringim
HALIM Consulting Ltd, Kano
mahmudshuaibu44@gmail.com
